What Is the Probability That Trump's Gaza Proposal Will Be Effective?
The militant group's partial approval of Donald Trump's Gaza plan on Friday has been received global support representing the closest the two warring sides have got in two years to ending the war within the Gaza Strip.
How Close Are We to an Agreement?
The Palestinian faction's qualified support of the Trump plan is the closest mediators have got over the last several months toward a full end of the conflict inside the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, they remain distant from a settlement.
Trump's twenty-point initiative to conclude the conflict requires that the group release all hostages within 72 hours, surrender governing authority to a transnational authority led by Donald Trump, and lay down its weapons. In return, Israel would slowly withdraw its forces from the Gaza Strip and release over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.
The proposal would also bring an increase of relief supplies to Gaza, some areas of which are facing food shortages, and rebuilding money to Gaza, which has been nearly completely devastated.
The organization only agreed regarding three clauses: the release of every captive, the handing over of authority and the pullout of Israeli troops from Gaza. Hamas said the remaining parts of the deal would have to be negotiated alongside additional Palestinian factions, as it is a component of a “collective national stance”.
In practice, this implies Hamas wants additional talks on the contentious elements of the US plan, particularly the request that it disarms, and a clear timeline on Israel’s withdrawal.
When and Where Will Negotiations Take Place?
Delegates have traveled to the Egyptian capital to finalize details to bridge the divide between the two sides.
Negotiations begin on Monday and it is anticipated to produce conclusions within a few days, be they successful or not.
Trump shared a picture of a map of Gaza on Saturday night depicting the boundary to which Israeli troops should withdraw stating if the group consents to it, that the ceasefire would begin immediately. Donald Trump is anxious to end the conflict as it comes to its two year mark and prior to the Nobel prize committee announces the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in October, an issue that is a widely known focus for him.
Benjamin Netanyahu said an agreement to secure the return of Israeli captives home should preferably take place in the coming days.
Which Differences Persist?
The two sides have been cautious their bets entering negotiations.
Hamas has repeatedly refused to lay down its arms in past negotiations. It has given no word on if its stance has changed regarding this issue, despite it principally agrees to the US proposal, with qualifications. Trump and Israel have emphasized that there is limited flexibility on the disarmament issue and are determined to bind Hamas with binding language in any plan going forward.
Hamas also said it accepted surrendering authority over Gaza to an expert-led administration, as outlined by the Trump plan. But, in its announcement, Hamas specified it would accept a Palestinian technocratic governing body, not the international body that Trump laid out in the proposal.
Israel has also sought to keep the issue regarding its military pullout vague. Only a few hours after announcing the US proposal during a shared media briefing in Washington recently, the prime minister released a recording reassuring the Israeli public that soldiers would stay in most of Gaza.
On Saturday night, Netanyahu reiterated that troops would stay in Gaza, stating that hostages would be returned as the Israeli military would remain within Gaza's interior.
The prime minister's stance appears to conflict with the requirement in Trump’s plan that Israeli troops fully withdraw from the territory. The group will demand guarantees that Israeli forces will completely leave and that if Hamas surrenders its weapons, Israeli forces will not re-enter Gaza.
Mediators will have to bridge these gaps, securing firm, unambiguous terms on disarmament from Hamas. They will also have to show to Hamas that Israel will truly withdraw from Gaza and that there will be global assurances that will force Israel to adhere to the terms of the agreement.
The disagreements might be resolved, and the United States will undoubtedly pressure the two sides to reach an agreement. Nevertheless, negotiations have come near to a deal before abruptly failing multiple times over the last 24 months, making both sides wary of declaring victory prior to a formal agreement.